Academia Open
Vol 9 No 2 (2024): December
Computer Science

A Comparison Between the ARIMA Model and Neural Networks Average Death in Iraq for the Period (1980-2018)
Perbandingan Antara Model ARIMA dan Jaringan Syaraf Tiruan Rata-rata Kematian di Irak untuk Periode (1980-2018)


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  • Ashraf M Shareef*,
  • Sarmad Jaafar Naser
Ashraf M Shareef
Statistics Department, Administration and Economics College, Sumer University, Iraq, Iraq *

(*) Corresponding Author
Picture in here are illustration from public domain image or provided by the author, as part of their works
DOI: https://doi.org/10.21070/acopen.9.2024.10409
Published December 16, 2024
Keywords
  • Box-Jenkins,
  • Neural Networks,
  • Prediction,
  • ARIMA model,
  • Death in Iraq
How to Cite
Shareef, A. M., & Naser, S. J. (2024). A Comparison Between the ARIMA Model and Neural Networks Average Death in Iraq for the Period (1980-2018). Academia Open, 9(2), 10.21070/acopen.9.2024.10409. https://doi.org/10.21070/acopen.9.2024.10409

Copyright (c) 2024 Ashraf M Shareef, Sarmad Jaafar Naser

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Abstract

In this research, the (Box-Jenkins) methodology and annual artificial neural networks in predicting theoretical and practical levels were identified and clarified by constructing time series models and artificial networks to predict the mortality rate of Iraq and the data represented by the mortality rate for the time period (1980-2028). It was obtained from the Central Statistical Organization where the data were analyzed using time series according to the Box-Jenkins method and artificial neural networks using the program (Eviws.v9, SPSS, Zaitun.TS) and the most important conclusions and recommendations were reached, the most important of which proved the time series model using residues and values The ARMA model has its advantage over the neural network model for predicting Iraqi mortality. So we recommend using this form.

Highights:

  1. Utilized Box-Jenkins and neural networks for mortality prediction (1980–2028).
  2. Data analyzed using EViews, SPSS, Zaitun.TS, with ARMA outperforming neural networks.
  3. Recommended ARMA model for accurate Iraqi mortality rate forecasting.

Keywords: Box-Jenkins, Neural Networks, Prediction, ARIMA model, Death in Iraq

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